Coconino COVID-19 counts: A look at the last month of the pandemic

Jun. 20--Drive-Up Testing

Medical staff prepare to take a nasal sample swab at a drive-up COVID-19 test-gathering site in the parking lot of Coconino Community College on North Fourth Street in March.

Jake Bacon, Arizona Daily Sun

Coconino County saw 500 additional COVID-19 cases in the last month, bringing its total number to more than 1,400, and although certain populations are affected more than others, cases are seen throughout various age groups, ethnicities, genders and locations.

Since the start of May, new case counts have generally been decreasing, according to a weekly report by Coconino County Health and Human Services (CCHHS); however, County Epidemiologist Matthew Maurer said it's unlikely these lower numbers will continue for much longer.

"We're still within this outbreak. We're still experiencing cases. We still have community transmission happening," Maurer said. "We need to take care of ourselves and be aware that this outbreak is still very real within our community."

As of Friday, there were 1,408 confirmed cases in the county, an increase of 27 cases from Thursday, with 783 of those cases in tribal communities. CCHHS defines those as areas where tribal members make up more than half the population.

Locally, east Flagstaff has the most cases by ZIP code, 86004, at 253.

The county currently has a rate of about 956 cases per 100,000 residents, while the Arizona Department of Health Services reports a rate of 649 per 10,000 cases. On Friday, there were 46,689 cases statewide, with more than 3,200 new cases reported that day.

Location

Flagstaff and tribal communities both saw an increase of about 100 cases since the end of May. While the Flagstaff positivity rate for tests has remained steady at 6%, tribal communities have seen a decrease from 23% to 20%.

Maurer suspected that tribal communities saw their spike in cases early and that Flagstaff has been more aligned with statewide trends, which surged this week.

"We don't have the lockdowns happening currently, so people are interacting a lot more, and that allows for increased transmission," Maurer said.

Sex, age and ethnicity

Male and female cases have remained relatively even, with women now at 51% of cases. CCHHS reports that women also accounted for about 24% more tests than men.

County residents between ages 45-54 have had the highest incidence rate for the disease. As of May 30, they accounted for 188 cases. By Friday, this age group had 215 cases.

High-risk individuals who are 65 years and older or have one chronic medical condition account for 32% of cases. Younger residents ranging from 20 to 44 years old continue to have the most cases at more than 600.

Native Americans account for more than 70% of the cases, followed by white individuals at 13%.

Hospitalization

In a month, the number of Coconino County residents who have been hospitalized due to COVID-19 has more than doubled, to a total of 352 people. Not all hospitals in the region are currently sharing this data, though.

On Friday, Northern Arizona Healthcare, which operates Flagstaff Medical Center, reported 13 COVID-19-positive patients in the hospital, with another seven pending cases. Total hospital census was at 206 of a total of about 300 available beds.

Of those hospitalized for COVID-19 through last week, 23% were in the intensive care unit (ICU) and 17% were intubated, according to CCHHS.

Testing

The number of COVID-19 samples collected for testing spiked in May as a result of the statewide testing blitz aimed at testing up to 60,000 Arizonans. Coconino County held four such events at its King Street building on Saturdays in May, resulting in 1,439 tests. May 9 saw the largest blitz turnout at 413.

Weekday collection has continued at Fort Tuthill. When it was established March 16, the process required a doctor's order, but the site recently opened up to everyone, increasing its average daily number of samples submitted for testing to more than 150.

Maurer explained the daily increase is likely a combination of not only opening the site to more people, but also an increased concern from the community following this week's statewide increase in cases. He added that the team has enough collection materials available to maintain this increased rate.

Recoveries and deaths

On May 29, CCHHS began reporting recoveries from COVID-19. This number was not based on interviews, but on a calculation: confirmed COVID-19 cases are considered recovered if the individual has not died four weeks after reporting their illness. On May 29, CCHHS reported 463 recoveries; Friday, there were 894.

Recovery from COVID-19 can take between two to four weeks for mild cases and four to six weeks for severe cases. The county therefore opted for the middle, Maurer explained, and although the CCHHS monitoring team could report some recoveries based on its conversations with COVID-19 patients, the calculation will be more accurate.

"The majority of cases are on the Navajo Nation and we don't have communication with those cases," he said.

An additional 22 deaths have been reported in the last month, up to 87. The majority of deaths were from individuals ages 65 and older as well as Native Americans, who make up nearly 90% of this group.

As a result of the pandemic, Coconino County's total number of deaths hit new highs, with the previous five-year average surpassed by 75% in April and 33% in May.

Health officials are encouraging the public to continue taking precautions such as wearing masks as the pandemic continues.

"It's a two-way street," said Dr. John Mougin, chief quality officer for Northern Arizona Healthcare. "When you wear a mask you're protecting others, when others wear a mask they're protecting you. ... We need everybody all-in on that to really curb the spread."

For more information about COVID-19 cases in Coconino County, visit www.coconino.az.gov/covid19 and for statewide cases visit www.azdhs.gov/coronavirus. The number of COVID-19 patients at Flagstaff Medical Center are reported daily at www.nahealth.com/COVID-19.

Kaitlin Olson can be reached at the office at kolson@azdailysun.com or by phone at (928) 556-2253.

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