Column: Newsom is riding high on pandemic recovery, but 'normal' problems loom

San Diego Union-Tribune - 6/7/2021

Gov. Gavin Newsom has been traveling up and down the state talking about how Californians will benefit from his plans to spend a huge budget surplus.

He has announced that the state he shut down more than once to stem the deadly spread of COVID-19 will fully reopen on June 15.

Not long ago, the state's response to the coronavirus pandemic fueled the recall effort against Newsom. Now California's case rate is the envy of many other states. Nobody is saying California has beaten COVID-19 — which apparently may be lurking out there for a long time — but it's starting to feel like it.

A new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California suggest the governor, at the moment, likely would defeat the election to remove him from office, and he gets a good job approval rating from an increasing majority. Many analysts suggest that the recall, like the pandemic, is on the run.

These seem to be good times for the governor. Oddly, maybe too good, or too soon, in a political sense.

With COVID-19 likely no longer foremost on their minds, voters may be focused on things other than how Newsom has handled the recovery by the time they cast their ballots months down the line.

Long-familiar problems are gaining renewed attention — from housing prices and the cost of living to homelessness and expensive gas.

Newsom's budget largesse and other actions may provide help in some of those areas, but they aren't going to do away with those issues.

Unemployment remains high, though less than it was at the height of the pandemic. Many Californians have been frustrated by delays in receiving state unemployment benefits, while billions of dollars in relief for legitimately out-of-work residents have been obtained fraudulently by others.

Kevin Faulconer, the former San Diego mayor and a recall replacement candidate, regularly brings up such matters.

"California is too expensive," he said Monday on Twitter. "We need to make it more affordable for the middle class to live here or we will keep losing them. What's the most outrageous price you've paid for gas?"

That tweet alludes to Faulconer's proposed state income tax cut and, seemingly, a Los Angeles Times story published that morning noting that the state gas tax will go up slightly on July 1. The story also says that while improvements have been made to the state's roads, many promised repairs are lagging.

There also has been increasing discussion about how inevitable wildfires — a California phenomenon out of the governor's control — and the intentional safety power shut-offs by utilities could affect Newsom's standing. The governor plans to spend $2 billion on wildfire emergency preparedness.

Jack Pitney, political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, had a particularly dire take on the wildfire dynamic.

"If the #RecallGavinNewsom election took place today, @GavinNewsom would win," Pitney said on Twitter. "BUT he cannot rest easy. Drought could lead to wildfires, which could lead to blackouts, which could lead to riots."

All this has led to a suggestion that Newsom and the Democrats should strike while the iron is hot, if you will.

The widely accepted assumption is the election will be held in October or November, given the rules governing the timeline. But that could be shortened by majority Democratic legislators.

State Sen. Steve Glazer, D-Orinda, made the argument an election as soon as possible, perhaps in August, would help Newsom.

He told Politico that would put the election before the September-October bill signing and vetoing period — often a time of tension between the governor and lawmakers. The voting also would occur before the more intense fire months in the fall, he added, though fire season is pretty much year-round in California now.

COVID-19 variants could increase cases and deaths as they have elsewhere in the world and an earlier date would give less time for outbreaks to take root, Glazer said.

That would also mean the election would happen before the start of school in the fall, and avoid possible fallout if the reopenings don't go as many parents expect.

Most important, Newsom would be more organized and better funded for an early election than the Republican-backed recall campaign or the replacement candidates, according to Glazer, a political strategist for former Gov. Jerry Brown and other candidates and causes before he was elected to the Legislature.

"The Republicans need the time, they want the time, they want the oxygen," he told Politico. "That's their whole play — to create chaos. And who knows what they will try and stir up?"

Glazer, a San Diego State University alum and former student body president, dismissed the notion that Republicans would benefit from a lighter turnout in August, contending the mail-ballot election largely neutralizes that.

There also would be less time for the major Republican replacement candidates to get better known. Caitlyn Jenner, a transgender advocate and reality show star, made the biggest splash entering the race, but she's vague on what policies she would pursue and, despite her celebrity, hasn't seemed to gain much traction.

Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox ran against Newsom in 2018 and lost by nearly 24 percentage points. This time around, he may be best known as the candidate who has campaigned with a Kodiak bear in tow. On Tuesday, San Diego attorneys announced they were suing him over the stunt on behalf of the Animal Protection and Rescue League.

Meanwhile, former Rep. Doug Ose still doesn't have much of a profile outside of Northern California.

Faulconer gained notice as a potential gubernatorial candidate after he was elected San Diego mayor in 2014. That's partially because he is a Republican who won in a Democratic city, which, even though it's the state's second largest, rarely gets the kind of political spotlight focused on Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Nevertheless, he is regularly on Fox News and other conservative media outlets leveling criticism at Newsom and talking about his policy prescriptions, particularly the proposed tax cut. He's been spending a fair amount of time in the Central Valley, which is among the more Republican areas in the heavily Democratic state.

A recall gives Republicans a better chance at capturing the governor's office than they would have in a normal election. Voters will face two questions: Do you want to recall Newsom? Who do you want to replace him?

The first question requires a simple majority, the second does not.

Newsom would lose even if, say 49, percent of voters oppose the recall. Yet Faulconer or another candidate conceivably could win with just 20 to 30 percent. In other words, one of them essentially could become governor with far fewer votes than Newsom received.

This story originally appeared in San Diego Union-Tribune.