Sonoma County sees slight increase in COVID cases, though nothing it would call a surge

The Press Democrat - 6/12/2021

Jun. 11—The 76 new COVID-19 cases Sonoma County public health officials reported Tuesday do not represent an alarming rise — neither do the 57 reported on June 2, nor the 60 on May 25.

Though new cases of COVID-19 are in fact on the rise in Sonoma County, these seemingly dramatic mid-week "spikes" are the product of recent changes to public health staffing as the pandemic slows, local officials said Friday.

In short, there's no one at the public health lab to process new reported cases over the weekend. That's clearly evident, as each one of the spikes is preceded by two days of zero or near-zero cases.

"There actually has to be a person physically processing the lab, and on the weekends now we're not working around the clock," county epidemiologist Jenny Mercado said.

Nevertheless, local health officials said there has been a recent increase in cases in recent weeks, likely due to the lifting of restrictions when the county went from the red to the orange tier of the state's reopening plan on April 7.

Mercado said the recent increase in cases is below previous surge levels, and far less than deadly transmission rates seen at the height of the winter surge, when it peaked at 60.4 new daily cases per 100,000 residents.

Dr. Sundari Mase, the county health officer, said COVID-19 transmission just a few weeks ago was as low as 2 new daily cases per 100,000. But the rate has increased to about 3.5 cases per 100,000, with the vast majority of new cases occurring among residents who have yet to receive the vaccine.

New cases are also being found among young Latino residents and in general among those between the ages of 18 and 34. Even so, the recent rise in cases is not resulting in any significant increase in hospitalizations, Mase said.

"We're not seeing bad outcomes, we might be seeing an increase in cases but there really is not an increase in hospitalizations," she said.

The last COVID-19 related death occurred June 5 and the previous month only saw one death, on May 19. Public health officials credit the success of the local vaccination effort.

However, there are some communities that are outpacing others as a result of lower vaccination rates. The Rohnert Park zip code of 94928, where only 57% of residents have been fully vaccinated — compared to 63% for the county overall — has the highest number of active cases in the county.

"It stands to reason that when a geography has a more susceptible population, and the vast majority of cases are among the unvaccinated, this will contribute to the number of cases in that geography," said Mercado, the county epidemiologist.

Even with the slight increase in cases, Mase said the county is ready for the full, statewide reopening on Tuesday. A further reopening is likely to result in more cases, she said.

"We've definitely got more people out and about, greater capacity in indoor settings — these are things that are leading to our increase in cases," she said. "But we expected that, so I think we're still on track. And I think it's going to be okay. We just have to keep track of our numbers."

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.

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