Answering your COVID-19 questions: Masks in schools, traveling for Labor Day

Orlando Sentinel - 9/6/2021

The worst may be behind us.

After rapid growth of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations over the last two months across Florida, both figures have trended down over the past week, signaling the region has likely peaked in the delta variant wave.

But still, painful days are ahead as many are still hospitalized, and dozens of county residents are dying from the virus with August threatening to become the deadliest of the pandemic. Hospitals still remain jammed and their staffs exhausted, officials have said.

Orange County’s positivity rate fell to 13.4% last week, down from 18.3% two weeks prior, according to Florida Department of Health data. Statewide the positivity rate fell from 17.1% to 15.2% last week. Three weeks ago 20.3% of tests were positive, the peak of the surge.

The World Health Organization says a rate of 5% or lower is a sign transmission is under control.

“We’re getting there, but we’re not there yet,” said Dr. Jay Wolfson, a public health professor at the University of South Florida.

Hospitalizations have also seen steady decreases from record highs statewide in August of 16,937 down to 14,279 Thursday. While AdventHealth, Central Florida’s largest hospital system, had a census of 1,330 Thursday down about 300 from two weeks ago.

“Right now we’re seeing very encouraging trends. Our hospitalizations have dropped dramatically,” said Florida Hospital Association CEO Mary Mayhew on MSNBC’s Morning Joe this week. “There are signs we have peaked and are heading in the right direction.”

But even with those decreases, hospital systems remain strained with more patients in ICU than beds available, said Dr. Vincent Hsu this week, the hospital’s epidemiologist. Because of a surge of deaths, area hospitals have brought in refrigerated mobile morgues.

Elsewhere in the region, the Orlando Sentinel reported this week that the Orlando Veteran’s Affairs hospital is using a mobile ICU that can treat as many as 18 patients.

Also, residents of Orlando and Winter Park are still being urged to conserve water by not using irrigation systems, washing cars or other non-essential activities, since the cities clean water with liquid oxygen, which is also used in treating hospitalized patients.

As Central Florida hopes it’s entering the downslope of the delta wave, here’s some answers to questions posed by Orlando Sentinel readers, and what we know so far. We will continue to prove updates as they become available and as knowledge and guidance evolve.

Can we project how many people will die from this wave?

Not precisely, though there are some indicators that hint at the painful weeks ahead.

Dr. Raul Pino, the state health officer for Orange County, has said at least 50% of people in ICU beds with COVID-19 will die from the virus. By Thursday, Orlando Health reported 107 patients in ICU. AdventHealth hasn’t said how many people are in ICU, though maintains they’re full.

While projections from a model by the University of South Florida’s Dr. Edwin Michael predicted the peak of deaths per day statewide would peak at about 330 around Sept. 14, Florida presently leads all states with an average of 263 deaths per day over the past two weeks. That’s a 90% increase over that timeframe, according to data compiled by the New York Times.

Already, Orange County has received reports of more than 200 people dead with the virus in August, making it the third deadliest month of the pandemic. But more deaths are expected to be reported for August, which could make it the deadliest, Pino said. The deadliest month so far was January, where 229 people died.

What school districts are mandating masks and why the sudden urgency?

•Orange: A mask mandate is in place except for students with a medical exemption.

•Osceola: Masks are mandated for about two more weeks for elementary and middle school students. High school students aren’t required because they’re eligible for vaccination. The district considered implementing a more sweeping mandate this week, but it was voted down.

•Seminole: Masks are required but parents can exempt their children. Roughly 17% of the district’s students have opted not to wear masks.

•Lake: Masks are optional, but the superintendent has proposed a plan to require masks at schools with a 5% positivity rate or higher. The School Board hasn’t made a decision on it yet.

Districts were emboldened to strengthen their masking policies after Leon County Circuit Judge John Cooper ruled that Gov. Ron DeSantis’ ban on such rules was unconstitutional.

Even prior to his ruling, some districts, including Orange’s, enacted mandates under threat of the state withholding salaries of school board members and superintendents who implement them.

The state appealed the ruling.

Infection rates are really high. Is traveling for Labor Day OK?

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said unvaccinated people shouldn’t travel this weekend with transmission still sky-high. Walensky said fully vaccinated people who wear masks can travel safely.

Wolfson, the USF professor, said he’d advise people to be careful.

“Use common sense,” he said. “The general rule for the short-term future is just be careful.”

Submit questions of your own at vaccinequestions@orlandosentinel.com

rygillespie@orlandosentinel.com