Key indicator, Austin COVID hospital admissions average, sinks to 55, signaling waning surge

The Austin area heads into the weekend with the lowest weekly average for daily hospital admissions for COVID-19 since late July, signaling major progress toward an end to the region's most recent surge in coronavirus cases.

Only 53 patients were newly admitted to the hospital for COVID-19 on Friday. That number lowered the rolling seven-day average that Austin Public Health uses to help determine how the most medically vulnerable can protect against the coronavirus. The new average, 55, was the lowest since July 31, when the average was also 55.

Austin Public Health is currently in Stage 5 of the agency's risk-based guidelines, which range from Stage 1 to Stage 5, with five being the highest threat level for community spread of the coronavirus. This most critical stage is triggered when the rolling weekly average of new daily hospital admissions reaches 50 or above.

The county's highest average for new daily admissions during the pandemic was 94 on Jan. 9, and reached as high as 84 on Aug. 11 during this most recent surge.

If the Austin area can stay below 50, Austin Public Health would consider moving back to Stage 4, where health leaders say it would be safe enough for fully vaccinated residents who are at high risk of severe symptoms to resume private gatherings, travel, dining and shopping if masked.

Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County health authority, said on Friday that the Austin area is very near to reaching its goal of having 70% of qualifying residents fully vaccinated against the disease.

Walkes added that even though the goal was delayed for months as a result of vaccine hesitancy, the milestone should still have a significant effect on the prevention of future surges.

On Friday, 68.4% of Travis County residents 12 and older were fully vaccinated, according to data from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

"If we can get the people who are eligible vaccinated, we will be better able to protect those who are not yet eligible for vaccination - be that infants, young children, those who are allergic to the vaccines - and that is very important to protecting our public health system," Walkes said Friday.

"But we also must also step back and look at the bigger picture," she continued. "Consider that Travis County shares a hospital system with 10 other counties, each unique. From a public health perspective, it is critical we continue to protect the ability of our hospitals to care for everyone who needs that care."

Austin Public Health on Friday was tracking 528 people in the hospital with COVID-19, a continued improvement over the pandemic record high of 653 patients set Aug. 25. The last time Travis County recorded as few patients was Aug. 8, when 539 were in the hospital.

As many as 212 people were in Austin-area ICUs for COVID-19, up by 10 since Thursday afternoon. That number hit a pandemic record high of 237 on Aug. 22. The 142 patients on ventilators was up by three compared to Thursday, but it still was an improvement over the pandemic record high of 174 set on Aug. 29.

"We've had a very eventful week in having crossed the threshold of over 1,000 deaths," Walkes said on Friday, when 1,015 COVID-19-related deaths were reported. "We continue to mourn the loss of loved ones and neighbors that have succumbed to the virus, which has been in the community for far too long.

"We're also looking forward to nearly reaching that mark of 70% of those who are fully vaccinated and eligible for vaccinations," she continued. "We hope that the decline in cases will continue and that we can get out and enjoy this lovely fall."

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