San Joaquin County health official: New COVID-19 variant to cause longer surge

May 26—STOCKTON — Last month, San Joaquin County Public Health officials said the BA.2 COVID-19 variant would create a spike in cases that could last until the end of May.

Now, a brand new variant could cause the latest surge in cases to last well into June.

Dr. Maggie Park, San Joaquin County Public Health Officer, said she and her staff are now keeping an eye out for the BA.2.12.1 variant, which accounts for 57.9% of cases across the country.

"We're watching carefully to see if this leads to a huge surge," Park told the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors Tuesday. "At this point, there seems to be a slow and steady rise in cases that might persist in our county for the next few weeks before we get that rise to a plateau."

She added the BA.2.12.1 variant will more than likely become the more dominant strain in the county very soon.

Like the omicron and BA.2 variants before it, Park said this new strain will not be as worrisome as the Delta variant the county dealt with last year.

However, she said each new variant that presents itself will continue to be more transmissible than its predecessors.

Since the beginning of May, daily case averages have exploded from 50 to more than 250, and the county's case rate has increased from 5.3 per 100,000 residents to 22 per 100,000 residents.

The county's test positivity has also risen from 1.1% to 9% in that timespan, she said.

In addition, the number of patients being treated for COVID-19 in the county's seven hospitals has jumped from 14 to 27.

While the total number of reported cases since the pandemic began two years ago is now at 171,278, Park said the actual amount of those currently infected could be higher.

"We know there are many people who are mildly symptomatic that are not getting tested," she said. "Or they are taking the rapid antigen tests at home, and those positive results are not being reported."

County public health recently launched its latest COVID-19 dashboard, which presents testing, case totals, hospitalizations, deaths and vaccinations.

However, it does not reveal city and ZIP code data like the agency's weekly reports, which have also not been published at www.sjcphs.org since May 16.

The dashboard's "Testing" column discloses reported tests and positivity rate, and the "Cases" column presents total cases and case rate trends. The "Hospitalizations" column provides total patients being treated and ICU information, while "Deaths" reveals total reported deaths and rate of death from the virus.

The "Vaccinations" column reports the number of fully vaccinated individuals and population percentage.

While the new dashboard does not reveal city and ZIP code data or partial vaccination and booster shot information, Park said more metrics will be added in the coming weeks.

The agency has also begun publishing a newsletter online at www.sjcphs.org, which provides information on therapies for those who test positive for COVID-19 and where to find them.

In addition, it provides a map of "test and treatment" locations in the county where residents can get tested and leave with therapies such as Paxlovid, Remdesivir, Bebtelovimab and Molnupiravir.

Park said the OptumServe site in Lodi, now located at the Lodi Community Services Center at 415 S. Sacramento St., is one such site. Hours of operation are Monday through Thursday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Supervisor Tom Patti, who represents District 3 on the board, questioned if county residents would be required to wear masks for the rest of their lives, given new variants keep emerging and state and federal health officials continue to predict surges in the coming months.

"I'm really wondering at what point do we need to say 'OK, we need to move on?'" he said. "We really need to address this as 'the pandemic that's not going to destroy civilization and we must batten down the hatches, we cannot go out without masks, we must shut things down again, people are really fed up and we're moving on.' Is that dialogue happening at the state level, or is it still doom and gloom and we must protect everyone no matter what the cost is and everybody has to do their part?"

Park said discussions are happening at the state level, and acknowledged that much of the population is tired of having to mask up or quarantine every time a new variant emerges.

"We're worried about whatever's the next variant," she said. "But even still worrying about a next variant coming possibly this fall, we recognize the fact that we need to keep moving on. But cautiously and carefully."

Park said the only places where residents are required to wear masks are in hospitals and skilled nursing facilities. For the general public, there is only a strong recommendation to wear masks indoors.

In addition, unvaccinated and partially vaccinated teachers are required to be tested every week.

"You're right people are tired," Board chair Chuck Winn said. "They are done. And I guess I'm a little bit leery of all this speculation about the future because it just renews fears, concerns, complaints, etc. Because we keep revisiting the past, and I think we need to take it one step at a time and see what happens. And as we deem appropriate, take appropriate action according to what we're dealing with, as opposed to second guessing or trying to predict."

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